All the indicators would point to a continued sea of “Labor red” in the Logan area at the close of this weekend’s election.
All seats in the Logan area are currently occupied by Labor members of parliament, and political analyst Paul Williams from Griffith University says incumbency will count for plenty when the result is turned in this weekend.
But he said it definitely wasn’t over yet, despite an early turnout in pre-polling booths.
Thousands of people have turned out to pre-poll, despite rain on Saturday.
Dr Williams said the final week could make a difference if those in the “undecided” camp are holding back their vote until they see how both parties perform in the final days.
He said Deb Frecklington and the LNP won last week.
“We finally saw the real Deb Frecklington. She got angry about crime and I think that’s what people want to see,” he said.
He did however, say that the southeast would have little role to play in any change in government, with Springwood the only seat which could trigger a change in government.
“It’s ‘the’ bellwether seat. If the LNP can pinch that seat, and Mick de Brenni has received some bad press lately, then they would almost certainly win government,” Dr Williams said.
The odds have swung firmly in favour of a Labor win, with bookmakers tightening the odds to $1.35 after Labor had drifted to $2 just four weeks ago.
Dr Williams spoke about a “grateful constituency” – a silent majority who were thankful that the current government had kept the borders shut and maintained a relatively stable economy.
“As an analyst, I’m not supposed to say this, but I’m just not smelling a mood for change,” he said.
“There will definitely be a spike in campaigning this week, and I’m thinking the 52-48 polling right now is a bit loose. It’s quite possible it could end up 50-50 on polling day.
“That means we can’t rule out a hung parliament.”
Dr Williams said most of the attention over the coming weekend would be in north Queensland, however the theme of crime – predominently youth crime pinned to unemployment – would be high on the agenda.
“I feel incumbency and apathy will play a big role,” he said.
“But I’ve been saying this week that Australia is giving governments a free pass on debt, deficit and unemployment.”
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