If bookmakers can be believed, the LNP has swung into favouritism to take government at the October 31 State Election.
But at $1.80, even the most astute of punters aren’t sure.
Doctor of politics at Griffith University Paul Williams says he understands the dilemma.
“I’m hearing mixed messages from the electorate,” he said.
“When push comes to shove, Queensland can’t stomach Deb Frecklington. In times of crisis, sitting members tend to benefit. And when the economy is stuffed, people tend to only gravitate towards the major parties.”
That would point to a Labor victory. That is, if there wasn’t more to the story.
“Every day, heat is coming off the border closure. It’s hard to know what the true feeling is outside southeast Queensland. And there’s a washing machine of preferences,” Dr Williams said.
One thing for sure is that Springwood will almost certainly be in the spotlight as a bellwether seat. Whichever party wins that seat tends to win parliament.
Challenger Kirrily Boulton has been pinpointing local projects early in her campaign – a firefighting boost at Mt Cotton and money to help Springwood commercial precinct a couple of them.
Meanwhile, the incumbent Mick de Brenni has been denying suggestions he meddled in the state government’s sports grants scheme, offering up money to clubs in marginal seats – “pork barreling”, no less.
In Macalister, former Member for Albert Margaret Keech has surfaced as an independent to take on her former understudy Melissa McMahon. Dr Williams says she could poll 10% of the vote. And where the preferences go could be crucial.
One Nation’s Kim Miller says that without a Green to contest Waterford, he’s a show to swing the 10% required for victory in that neck of the woods.
“It’s not won yet, but it’s ours to win,” shadow minister Andrew Powell said at a press conference in Springwood last week.
Dr Williams admits he’s confused by it all.
If we believe the noise, and people actually start to care about this election, we might just see a change in government.
“But it could be as boring as the Brisbane City Council election, Labor could increase its majority, and we’ll be left analysing one of the most flat, colourless campaigns of all time,” he said.
