A new independent study has found that allowing first home buyers to withdraw superannuation savings for house deposits could increase property prices by up to 10.3%.
The study, conducted by University of South Australia Professor Chris Leishman, used two econometric models to assess the impact of a proposal allowing first-home buyers to access $50,000 from their superannuation.
According to the findings, such a policy could push capital city median house prices up by as much as $92,500.
The additional costs would lead to higher mortgage repayments, with the average homebuyer expected to pay an extra $260 per fortnight – amounting to approximately $200,000 over the life of a loan.
Professor Leishman said the research confirmed that increasing demand in an already constrained housing market would drive prices higher, making home ownership less affordable for many Australians.
“It is an uncontroversial finding. If you add demand to an inelastic market, prices are going to rise, with the unintended consequence of making housing less affordable,” he said.
The study also pointed to the experience in New Zealand, where a similar policy was introduced.
House prices there grew at twice the rate of those in Australia, and homeownership rates among people in their 30s dropped by seven percentage points.
SMC CEO Misha Schubert said the research reinforced concerns that using super for house deposits would have the opposite effect of making home ownership more accessible.
“Raiding retirement savings for house deposits would just unleash a supercharged price hike, not create more new home buyers,” Ms Schubert said.
She also warned that lower super balances could lead to increased reliance on the age pension, adding to future costs for taxpayers.
The report comes amid ongoing debate about housing affordability, with many economists advocating for supply-side solutions rather than demand-driven policies.
A recent survey by the Economic Society of Australia found that only one out of 49 top economists supported the idea of withdrawing super for housing.
Independent economist Saul Eslake has also previously argued that policies enabling Australians to pay more for housing ultimately result in higher property prices rather than an increase in homeownership rates.
