A LA nina weather pattern that led to storms which ripped through Logan suburbs last Summer is threatening again.
Long-range weather forecasters are seeing similar weather patterns emerging again, albeit of the weaker variety.
The Bureau of Meteorology activated its watch stance for La Niña last week, indicating a 50% chance of the above average rainfall for Spring and the start of summer.
It’s got the SES, state government and insurance companies all beginning their regular campaigns to encourage home owners to clean up their properties.
Last year, hail stones tore rooves apart at Logan Village, Greenbank and other Logan suburbs. SES received hundreds of calls.
Having a La Niña system for the second year running had weather chasers such as former Heritage Park resident David Sercombe watching closely.
“If the Western Pacific is increasing or decreasing [in temperature], that can change the amount of rainfall particularly here in eastern Australia,” Weatherwatch meteorologist Mr Sercombe said.
Mr Sercombe, who lived in Heritage Park for 10 years, said the likely outcome is a weak La Niña easing off around January and February.
That could be good news early in the season, but disastrous if normal hot and dry conditions kick in at the end of the early wet.
“Queensland has been impacted by close to 90 disasters in the past decade and, while Queenslanders are rightly renowned for our ability to respond, experience shows the better prepared a community is, the more quickly it recovers,” deputy premier Steven Miles said, last week launching a series of local government events to prepare people for the coming season.
La Niña is assessed on a scale called ENSO or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation outlook.
The scale has wet and dry extremes – the wet being La Niña and dry being El Niño. The scale’s neutral or middle position indicates normal rain and storm conditions.
The level of storm activity during summer will depend on the severity of the La Niña and whether the ENSO outlook swings back to a neutral position. A neutral reading would bring usual hot and dry storm conditions.
Wet and cloudy conditions associated with La Niña can make it too cold for thunderstorms, even though the humidity might suggest otherwise.
“Those extremes can really ruin the conditions for thunderstorms,” Mr Sercombe said.
“If it’s a cool neutral or weak La Niña, I wouldn’t be saying we’d be expecting below average thunderstorms.”
Mr Sercombe also said people can expect some outbursts of heat later this month as the interior of Australia warms earlier than usual.
“We’re noticing the interior of Australia and across the Kimberly is heating up a little earlier than usual – that’s something to keep an eye on over the next little while, we might get a couple of outbursts of heat later this month, which are hinting at the summer to come,” he said.
