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Expert predicts Logan’s state election results

Logan City isn’t likely to experience the sweeping LNP victories expected in other electorates across the state, a leading political commentator says.

However, a Labor loss on 26 October could create new opportunities for the city’s remaining Labor MPs.

Even if the city’s most precarious seats like Springwood are lost at the election, Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams predicted they would likely “re-align” by 2028.

Mr Williams agreed with the major polling that consistently showed the LNP dominating the election and David Crisafulli becoming premier.

He also saw current premier Steven Miles “retiring when he is beaten”, paving the way for a new leader who will almost inevitably be from Logan.

In this scenario, the new leader of the opposition will be the head of either the left or right faction of the Labor party, depending on which faction makes up the majority of the caucus.

The left-faction leader would likely be Waterford MP Shannon Fentiman, if Mr Williams’ predictions about the retirement of current faction-leader Steven Miles are correct.

The right faction’s leader is Woodridge MP Cameron Dick.

“There probably will be more left-faction MPs left in the caucus, so I think it is more likely that Shannon is leader,” Mr Williams said.

“It may well be a joint ticket – a Fentiman and Dick ticket, which is most likely the outcome.

“So, both the leader and deputy leader are from Logan.”

On the flip side, other high-ranking Logan MPs like Springwood’s Mick de Brenni are facing the chopping block.

“There’s going to be a big swing everywhere, and Springwood is a bit of a ‘bellwhether’ seat so it can often change with the government of the day,” Mr Williams said.

Mr de Brenni holds his seat by a margin of 8.3 per cent.

“Normally that would be safe enough, but this is an unusual election,” Mr Williams said.

“The swing is going to be between at least eight and up to 12 per cent.”

Recent polling regarding Springwood, conducted as early as July this year and as recently as last week, suggests LNP is on-par or ahead of Labor in the two-party preferred vote.

If polling is accurate, the election of the LNP’s Springwood candidate Susanna Damianopoulos would mark the first Logan City MP from her party since 2015.

“The LNP under Campbell Newman swept through Logan and took everything except for Woodridge,” Mr Williams said.

But the LNP swing in Logan “won’t last”.

“It will be an aberration,” he said.

“I guarantee that sometime over the next four years, Labor will overtake the LNP in the polls.

“Voters will be saying ‘bloody LNP government’ in the same way they’re saying ‘bloody Labour government’ now.

“It happens especially among the lower-middle class voters who used to be rock-solid Labor but are now increasingly volatile – flipping between Labor, the LNP, and interestingly, parties like One Nation.

“There will be big swings back to Labor – it is what we call a realigning election.”

Mr Williams said Labor should also be concerned about the south Logan seat of Macalister, currently held by Melissa McMahon since the electorate was first created in 2017.

The city’s other electorates – Algester, Logan, Jordan, Waterford and Woodridge – should all be safely retained by Labor, according to Mr Williams.

“It’s not going to be quite the Newman wipeout, but it is going to be brutal, and Labor is going to get thumped.”

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